What Would Happen If Israel Attacked Iran? Unpacking The Fallout

Prof. Jailyn Leffler 22 Jun 2025

The Middle East remains a tinderbox, perpetually on the brink of wider conflict. Among the most volatile potential flashpoints is a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran. The question of what would happen if Israel attacked Iran is not merely hypothetical; it's a scenario that has kept regional and global powers on high alert for years, with recent events only intensifying the urgency of this concern. The implications of such an attack would reverberate far beyond the immediate combat zones, reshaping geopolitical alliances, global energy markets, and potentially drawing in other major players, including the United States.

Recent escalations, including Iran's unprecedented missile and drone barrage on Israel in April 2024 following an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria, have brought this long-feared confrontation closer to reality. While Iran's response was largely repelled, it confirmed that military retaliation is underway and set a dangerous precedent for future conflicts. The world watches with bated breath, attempting to decipher the complex web of motives, capabilities, and potential consequences should Israel decide to launch a preemptive military attack on Iran.

The Looming Shadow: Why an Israeli Attack on Iran is Feared

The specter of an Israeli attack on Iran has been a constant source of tension in the Middle East for over a decade. US and European officials have frequently considered such an attack to be imminent, keeping the entire region on high alert. This apprehension stems from Israel's long-standing security doctrine, which prioritizes preemptive action against perceived existential threats. For Israel, Iran's nuclear program, coupled with its support for various proxy groups across the region, represents such a threat.

The recent exchange of blows has only heightened these fears. After Israel attacked an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria, killing high-profile Iranian military officials, Iran responded with a barrage of drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile strikes on Israel. While many of the projectiles were shot down by Israel and other nations, some of which came from Yemen, the sheer scale of the Iranian attack was unprecedented. This direct confrontation has pushed the boundaries of what was previously considered acceptable, making the prospect of Israel launching a preemptive military attack on Iran a more immediate concern for policymakers worldwide.

Israel's Stated Intentions: The Nuclear Question

Israel has publicly described its attacks on Iran as aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This objective has been a cornerstone of Israeli foreign and defense policy for years. The concern is rooted in the belief that a nuclear-armed Iran would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, posing an unacceptable threat to Israel's security. However, nearly a week into the war, it is less than clear that this stated purpose is the sole or primary driver of all Israeli actions, especially given the broader context of regional instability.

The pursuit of a nuclear weapon by Iran is a highly contentious issue. Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but international bodies and many nations remain skeptical, citing past activities and a lack of full transparency. Any Israeli strike would inevitably target facilities related to this program, aiming to set back Iran's capabilities significantly. However, such an action carries immense risks, not least of which is the potential for an uncontrollable escalation that could plunge the entire Middle East into a far wider and more devastating conflict.

Iran's Vulnerabilities and Strategic Calculus

Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Iran’s weaknesses in deterring aggression against its assets in the region and capitalizing on the ongoing instability to advance its own security priorities have become apparent. Despite its network of proxies and its considerable missile capabilities, Iran has faced repeated strikes on its personnel and facilities, often attributed to Israel, without launching a direct, large-scale retaliatory attack until April 2024. This perceived weakness may be increasing the strategic value of its nuclear program as a deterrent, even as it makes it a more tempting target for Israel.

Iran's strategic calculus is complex. It seeks to project power and influence across the Middle East, often through non-state actors, while avoiding direct, all-out war with a superior military power like the United States or Israel. However, repeated perceived humiliations or significant damage to its core assets, particularly its nuclear infrastructure, could force Iran's hand, leading to a response far more aggressive than its April 13 barrage. The internal dynamics within Iran, including the Revolutionary Guard's influence, would also play a crucial role in shaping any retaliatory decisions.

The Immediate Aftermath: What Happens on the Ground?

If Israel does indeed attack Iran, as Israeli officials have increasingly implied might happen, the immediate impact on the Middle East would be catastrophic. An attack by Israel, thought imminent by US and European officials, would unleash chaos. Israel could attack Iran by damaging its nuclear facilities or Revolutionary Guard bases across the Middle East, which would cause chaos in the region and draw the US into a wider geopolitical conflict. The initial phase would likely involve precision strikes aimed at specific targets, but the subsequent chain of events is far less predictable.

Targeting Nuclear Facilities: Unprecedented Risks

A primary target for Israel would undoubtedly be Iran's nuclear facilities. The Iranians had claimed that Israel also attacked its facilities in Fordow and Isfahan in previous, undeclared operations. But what happens when a nuclear facility is attacked? Experts warn of profound fallout. Attacking such sites carries immense risks, not just of retaliation but also of environmental and humanitarian disasters. The potential release of radioactive material, even if contained, would have devastating long-term consequences for the surrounding populations and the environment. Furthermore, such an attack would likely push Iran to accelerate its nuclear program, potentially leading to a covert pursuit of weapons capability, making future monitoring and control even more challenging.

Iran's Likely Retaliation: Beyond April 13

In the current case, Iran has already launched missile and drone attacks in response to Israel’s operation, confirming that military retaliation is underway. This recent response provides a baseline, but a more significant Israeli attack on Iranian soil or its nuclear program would likely provoke a far more severe reaction. It’s unlikely that Iran will repeat the same kind of attack it launched against Israel on April 13, which mostly relied on drones and some missile strikes that were quickly repelled by the US, UK, and Jordanian air defenses. Instead, Iran might employ a wider array of its ballistic missiles, target Israeli cities directly, or activate its proxies across the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and various militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Israel is bracing for a major assault by Iran, with tensions rising to levels not seen since the October 7 Hamas attacks. Tehran says it will hit back in turn if this happens. This tit-for-tat escalation could quickly spiral out of control, leading to a full-scale regional war. Such strikes set a precedent for future conflicts, making it harder for either side to back down without losing face or perceived deterrence capabilities.

The Nuclear Taboo and Its Perilous Breach

Regardless of what one thinks of Iran or Israel, a direct attack on a nation's nuclear facilities, particularly those under international safeguards, would be a blatant and sudden violation of the nuclear taboo with the potential geopolitical fallout if not handled carefully. The nuclear taboo refers to the strong normative prohibition against the use of nuclear weapons, but it also extends to actions that could directly lead to nuclear proliferation or catastrophic nuclear incidents. An attack on a nuclear facility, even if conventional, risks triggering a chain of events that could lead to nuclear escalation or the rapid development of nuclear weapons by the attacked state as a ultimate deterrent.

Such an act would send a chilling message globally, potentially encouraging other nations to pursue nuclear weapons for their own security, arguing that conventional deterrence is insufficient against such aggressive actions. This could unravel decades of non-proliferation efforts, making the world a far more dangerous place.

Regional Ripple Effects: A Wider Geopolitical Quagmire

An attack by the United States or Israel would have profound effects on domestic Iranian politics, the strategy of U.S. Gulf allies, and broader regional stability. The Middle East is an interconnected web of alliances, rivalries, and proxy conflicts. A direct Israeli-Iranian war would inevitably draw in other actors, escalating existing conflicts and creating new ones.

Impact on Gulf Allies and Domestic Iranian Politics

US Gulf allies, many of whom have quietly cooperated with Israel against Iran, would find themselves in an incredibly precarious position. They would face immense pressure from their own populations to condemn Israel and support Iran, even if they privately fear Iranian regional hegemony. The delicate balance of power in the Persian Gulf would be shattered, potentially leading to increased instability, internal dissent, and even regime challenges in some states. Domestically, in Iran, such an attack could either galvanize support for the regime against a foreign aggressor or, conversely, expose its vulnerabilities and lead to internal unrest, depending on the scale of the damage and the public perception of the regime's response.

The Humanitarian Cost and Refugee Crisis

Beyond the immediate military conflict, the humanitarian consequences would be devastating. Large-scale military operations inevitably lead to civilian casualties, displacement, and the destruction of infrastructure. Millions could be forced to flee their homes, creating a massive refugee crisis that would strain neighboring countries and international aid organizations. The economic impact would also be severe, disrupting global oil supplies and sending energy prices skyrocketing, triggering a global recession. The Middle East, already grappling with multiple humanitarian crises, would be pushed to its breaking point.

The American Stance: Support, Restraint, and Potential Involvement

The US has backed Israel materially and militarily throughout their war on Gaza, providing significant aid and diplomatic support. However, it has also urged its main regional ally not to take rash actions that raise tensions with Iran and their allies. For all the US denials, Iran clearly believes American forces endorsed and at least tacitly supported Israel's attacks. This perception, whether accurate or not, means that any Israeli attack on Iran would immediately put the US in a difficult position.

The US has sent fighter jets and warships to the Middle East, while Britain has also increased its military presence, signaling a readiness to defend its interests and allies. If Israel attacks Iran, the US would face immense pressure to either join the conflict, defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, or attempt to de-escalate. Experts on what happens if the United States bombs Iran suggest various scenarios, from limited strikes to a prolonged war. The US weighs the option of heading back into a war in the Middle East, and any direct involvement would have profound and unpredictable consequences, not just for the region but for global stability.

Beyond the Battlefield: Long-Term Consequences

A simulation examining what happens when Israel attacks Iran reveals a grim picture of long-term instability. Even if the initial military objectives are met, the underlying issues that fuel the conflict would remain, potentially exacerbated. The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East would be irrevocably altered. Iran might accelerate its nuclear program covertly, or even openly withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, viewing nuclear weapons as its only reliable deterrent against future attacks. This would lead to a nuclear arms race in the region, with Saudi Arabia and other nations potentially seeking their own nuclear capabilities.

Furthermore, the conflict would likely empower extremist groups, create new breeding grounds for terrorism, and destabilize fragile states. The global economy would suffer from prolonged energy market volatility and disrupted trade routes. The international community's ability to enforce non-proliferation norms and maintain regional stability would be severely tested. The long-term consequences of such a conflict would be measured not just in casualties and economic damage, but in a profound shift towards a more dangerous and unpredictable world order.

In conclusion, the question of what would happen if Israel attacked Iran paints a sobering picture of potential catastrophe. From the immediate chaos of military strikes and inevitable retaliation to the profound regional ripple effects and the perilous breach of the nuclear taboo, the consequences would be far-reaching and deeply destabilizing. While Israel aims to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the path to achieving this through military means is fraught with unimaginable risks, potentially drawing the US into a wider geopolitical quagmire and forever altering the Middle East. The delicate balance of power, already strained, would collapse, leading to a new era of uncertainty and conflict.

The imperative for de-escalation and diplomatic solutions has never been more urgent. Understanding the full scope of potential fallout is crucial for policymakers and the public alike. What are your thoughts on this complex issue? Share your perspectives in the comments below, or explore other related articles on our site to deepen your understanding of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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